The 2025 season is looking up. However, prices on the Intercontinental Exchange continue to fall.

Arabica coffee dropped below $3.6 per pound, their lowest level since April 10, amid expectations of higher global supply and weak demand. The USDA projects Brazil’s coffee production will rise 0.5% yoy to 65 million bags in the 2025/26 season, while Vietnam’s output is expected to grow 6.9% to 31 million. Brazil is the world’s top producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam leads in robusta production. Private forecasters also raised their estimates: Safras & Mercado now sees Brazil’s 2025/26 output at 65.51 million bags (up from 62.45 million), and Brazil’s crop agency Conab lifted its estimate to 55.7 million bags (from 51.81 million). Meanwhile, the USDA expects Honduras—Central America’s largest coffee grower—to boost output by 5.1% to 5.8 million bags. On the demand side, major buyers like Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez warned that new US tariffs would raise import costs and hurt sales. Paramount Coffee, a major US roaster, has already increased prices in response to the tariffs. (Source tradingeconomics.com)